Ukraine: update

It appears that Russia has moved troops into the Crimea. This video shows Russian attack helicopters moving into Crimea ahead of 6000 troops to (to paraphrase the Russian media) protect Russian language speakers in the region. And it also appears that neo-Nazi groups are patrolling the streets in Kyiv. Strange bedfellows and all. The UN has asked Russia to explain its actions while the United States is calling on Russia to withdraw.

From a purely power politics perspective it is quite difficult to see what resources that the UN, the EU, or the US have to confront Russia in the Black Sea. A deal with Russia will have to be made but it is difficult to see the typology of the framework needed to de-escalate tension in the region outside of the issues with the Ukraine itself. I think a fair amount of pressure can be applied through both the EU and North American banking system with threats of confiscation of the offshore wealth of the Russian elites, but that would require a type of cooperation unseen in a while.

An interesting historical analysis at al Arabiya outlines the relationship between Russia and Turkey regarding the Crimea over the last several centuries. A treaty signed in 1793 holds that Crimea was never to be independent and, if so, would return to Turkish rule. More on the Treaty of Küçük Kaynarca here.

And here is a transcript of the leaked comments by the US ambassador on the overthrow of the pro-Russian leader. I put this link up because this forms a crucial piece of the puzzle when interpreting recent actions in Kyiv by the opposition parties. This provocation as a deliberate “new Cold War” thesis is provocative, to say the least.

Another point that it also interesting is the potential for this action by Russia as a precedent for other states “protecting language minorities” in, say, the Far North East.

Now that is a rock wall!

Click here for a great read on how they lit Ontario’s largest indoor rock climbing gym. The lighting tutorial is interesting but the size of the indoor gym is also impressive!

My thoughts on the Ukraine

It is difficult for the historian in me not to use historical analogies but they seem particularly apt when discussing the current situation in the Ukraine. The “bigger picture” is the projection of Russian power into the Crimea and its desire to bring its nieghbour into an Asian economic orbit instead of a European one. Russia’s mineral wealth and rapprochement with China coupled with America’s desire to utilize its relationship with Russia to its own advantage in the region has led to this provocative action on Putin’s behalf. It appears that there are no consequences. Just as many felt that mobilization in the region couldn’t possibly lead to conflict in 1914. (And remember that I did just finish reading McMillan’s latest book on the ending of the long 19th century peace.) This ratcheting up of tension, including war games on the border and the use of its flag in the barricaded government building in Simferopol, suggests that Russian intentions are less than neutral. This isn’t helpful for Ukraine. Neither is the intransigence with which the US portrays the democratically elected Ukrainian leaders. A worrisome trend is emerging whereby revolution leads to democracy leads to the election of those who would find little in common with Thomas Jefferson.

The Ukraine has its own issues. Demographics are important: young, educated, and urban are western oriented; rural, older Ukrainians are more pro-Russian, perhaps longing for its more structured position in the Soviet orbit. Russian speakers are, naturally, more eastern looking. Ethnic tension between Ukrainians and Russian speakers take on a different dimension when factoring in the Tatar population. This doesn’t even take into account the geographic dimension: the south-east area bordering on the Black Sea are eastern-focused, the north and west are aligned more to Europe. From an economic perspective Russia provides the energy that fuels the economy, creating a balance of payments issue that cannot be neglected.

And politics too. Rampant corruption and less than transparent power structures has led to a rejection of government itself. Nationalist groups aligned with groups like the Greek Golden Dawn and their racist ilk form part of this opposition. Oh my.

So what is the way forward? I am no expert on this situation but perhaps another history lesson. The peace failed in 1914 because leaders were too obsessed with domestic politics and lacked the courage or intelligence to openly discuss these issues in a transparent fashion. Asserting religious or philosophical superiority in domestic politics is one thing, doing it in an international arena is another. Power dynamics are vastly asymmetric in both areas but on a domestic level there is usually only one side that can marshall military might.

Starlog magazine

When I was young I had a favorite magazine, and I don’t mean Mad or Cracked, although I devoured those. My favorite sci-fi magazine was Starlog, now available in Pdf format for download here.

Now I’m just waiting for Fangoria 🙂

Global instability and rising food prices

The globalization of food production and distribution have led to a dramatic rise in food prices in many places around the globe. This 2011 paper elaborates both a model to understand the connection between food prices and political instability and shows empirical results from international data.

Another mini-house!

My blog followers know that I have posted quite a bit on the Tiny Home movement. Changes in technology and engineering techniques have revolutionized the way we are going to build our homes. My friend DD sent me this link. $30k and perfect for a cottage. Although I am not sure about the big screen. I may opt for a projector 🙂

Postal Banking: a public good.

Dissent has a very interesting article about the use of the postal system as a bank, a return to an older, more reliable model here. A postal bank would be used for deposits and other day to day transactions, providing a public good to a vast amount of the citizenry.

The End of History

No, seriously. While Francis Fukuyama may have declared its end due to an emergent liberal hegemony in the intellectual sphere, history is officially ending because a lot of people just don’t believe it anymore. Or, at least that is how they act. Western culture with its cannibalistic tendency, has become, once again, unmoored and may not have the capacity to regain its composure. A belief in history, however difficult to absorb, is necessary to stem this descent.

Its contrary is also true: namely, that an assurance in the betterment held by the future is also disappearing. More ghosts for the attic.

The inevitability of dominance in the future held by western exceptionalists was shattered by the piercings of terrorism and its response. The failure was the exceptionalism since that led to rigidification that could not accommodate the burgeoning realities of demographics: the South, or the Third World, or whatever category that you lumpen the proletariat into was younger and more ready to adapt and bear the burden of tomorrow.