Category: Culture

The BBC website has some historical maps of the Crimean region here.

And some awesome historical maps for sale of the same here.

National Geographic maps here.

Wiki maps here.

I post these to highlight the changing nature of the political boundaries of this region. Including the Crimean Khanate.

Update: Russia is firmly in control in the Crimea, post vote. Moscow has accomplished several goals, one of which is that a clear signal has been given by Russia that political liberalism is not acceptable in Kyiv and, in a pre-emptive fashion, in Moscow. Political liberalism is antithetical to the oligarchs in Russia and any dissent will not be tolerated. Moscow, like Beijing in 1989, will roll out the tanks to quell any unrest. Any attempt at a “colour” revolution or a Tahir Square type movement will not be tolerated. Look for Putin to assert that the Crimea has always been Russian, an appeal to historical rights that the West will have difficulty countering due to their support of Israel. The two most important players have yet to reveal their intentions: Ankara and Beijing. More to come.

Mr friend RP and I went to Edwards ON yesterday to Stanley’s sugar shack. Quite busy but we were a week or two early for the running of the sap. Breakfast was quite good and the people were super friendly! We enjoyed the outdoor air but the best part was the farm animals! A very large pig, super ugly turkeys, super cute barn kitten, and horses, lots of large horses! Since I was enjoying myself so much, I didn’t really take too many photos.

Today the people of the Crimean Republic (I had to wiki its political configuration) will vote on whether or not they will join the Russian Confederation or return to its pre-1992 status as a quasi autonomous entity within Ukraine (whatever that means). My assumption is that the vote will be for option 1. There will be a pro-Russian political apparatus established, a recognition from Moscow, and a withdrawal of the not-Russian forces back to Russia. And then the rest of the Ukraine comes into play.

An autonomous state, as the new Crimean Republic would be, is able to control its own foreign orientation, as long as it is the direction of Russia. With the visit of the President of Tatarstan to the Crimea, Moscow’s agenda is clear: the only non-option is a Western oriented Crimea and old animosities with ethnic Tatars can be accommodated as with the other ethnicities within the Soviet, er, Russian sphere of influence. Access to the Black Sea will not be inhibited. And if other areas within the Ukraine desire the change, perhaps a referendum could be held there as well. The only potential hiccup for Moscow is Ankara, who seem to be taking a position of non recognition toward the results of this vote regardless of the outcome. Turkey has its own successionist issues.

But this leaves the EU oriented leadership in Kyiv, with a fait accompli.

While Kyiv and Berlin and Washington and Paris and London will not recognize the validity of these election results, the problem is that they don’t have the boots on the ground to affect any change. Negotiations will now begin for the rest of the Ukraine. The region is an important artery for energy and foodstuffs, important for Europe and an important source of wealth for Russia. The key consideration for Angela Merkel is whether or not Ukraine as a political entity is worth the potential disruption to the German economy. The leadership in Kyiv and the people demonstrating for greater political openness and economic liberalism are, to an extent, secondary in this geo-political game. The United States will refuse this concession as well but it seems doomed to rattle its sword once or twice as the media attention turns, becoming obsessed with a missing Malaysian airplane. And both Paris and London, again, don’t seem to be willing to risk too much. The new leadership in Kyiv and the people in the streets with their legitimate demands for fair and transparent political and economic systems may find that their allies in the West are willing to lend token sums and platitudes, but not much more.

#Shocker 95% voted to join Russia.

And the situation as seen through game theory here. Arguing that a tipping point has been reached whereby unilateral actions, such as Russian actions in the Crimea, become the norm. While possibly a statistical abberation, if this is true then expect more aggressive military postures by states seeking to solidify their regions of influence. Interesting hypothesis.

The finale of True Detective certainly has the intertubes abuzz. Most thought it bland and anti-climatic. I am not one of those people. Here are the best commentaries on the show including a very fine piece on the philosophy that was quite apparent throughout the show here. If you only read one piece I would suggest this one from Jacob Mikanowski in the L.A. Review of Books that touches each element of the show from the gorgeous and haunting cinematography of Adam Arkapaw to the music of T Bone Burnett in the opening credits.

Five principles and seven actions for Rapid Language Acquisition at TEDx talks here. Fascinating stuff!

Longitudinal economic data used by the IMF to detail how increased inequality is the wrong path for growth. It is disturbing how difficult it is to get this rather simple idea across to policy makers.

Couple this document with the fascinating discussion of the capability approach at Crooked Timber here.

And read Thomas Piketty for the best analysis of inequality thus far here.

Here are the main conclusions from the IMF study:

First, more unequal societies tend to redistribute more. It is thus important in understanding the growth-inequality relationship to distinguish between market and net inequality.

Second, lower net inequality is robustly correlated with faster and more durable growth, for a given level of redistribution. These results are highly supportive of our earlier work.

And third, redistribution appears generally benign in terms of its impact on growth; only in extreme cases is there some evidence that it may have direct negative effects on growth. Thus the combined direct and indirect effects of redistribution—including the growth effects of the resulting lower inequality—are on average pro-growth.

The New York Times has an interesting article here detailing some of the reasons for the recent Russian actions in the Crimea, along with the actions of pro-Russian Crimeans. It posits the argument that Putin’s actions are not part of a grand design; rather they show how reactive Putin has been, and how the issue of NATO expansion is the main driver of Putin’s actions. I also suggest taking the time to read some of the earlier (2005-2010) US diplomatic materials via wikileaks. What you can see from wiki leaks is that the Western looking Ukraine is clearly concerned with attracting investment and reforming the banking sector, the lure of liberalism is intoxicating. What we see recently from the Eastern looking Ukraine is that it is concerned with the important economic investments, especially in the oil and gas sector, made by Russia. These two visions of whither Ukraine may be incompatible.

And some good links on the subject.

Mark Ames from Pando here.

Ben Judah at Politico here.

Anatol Lievan at Zocalo here.

So I finally received my Mitakon Lens Turbo from Hong Kong. It is a knock off of the pricier Metabones Speedbooster that I got for around $200 bucks. Here are some samples but I didn’t use a tripod, these were just some walking around shots to test out the adapter. It fits like a glove and the lens went on my m4/3 without a hitch. I cannot wait to test it with my Tokina 11-16!

I set the camera to A and the shutter speed was automatic. Here are some samples with and without the LensTurbo. Shots 1 and 3 are with the LensTurbo, the others, without. The Nikon lens is sharp and a light eater in any case but I cannot wait to get some dusk shots to take advantage of the additional stop of light. IIRC the lens was manually set to f5.6. If my math is right, the extra image makes my 50mm X 2 crop factor =100mm X 0.71 = 71mm.

Amazing video here of Shozo Kato describing the art of stillness in battle. Beautifully shot. And here is another great video that I found on itsutsu no tachi, the first sword kata.

Nothing of substance has occurred. The Russians have increased their control over the Crimea and many countries seem unaware as to the seriousness of this situation and seem to think that belligerent language is what is needed now. It is not. Hans Morgenthau’s work on power tells us that influence is not empty rhetoric, it has to be backed up. I know of no force in the region that will expel Russian troops from the Crimea. The fact of how integrated the EU, especially Germany, is to Russia means that while the verbiage is high, cooler heads must prevail. It is in the best interests of both economic blocs. Angela Merkel is, according to this article, quietly working behind the scenes recognizing that increased tensions would cause Germany’s economy to falter. The EU would have even more difficulties than it already does now if this were to unfold. The interesting question for me is whether or not Merkel can come to a reasonable accommodation with Putin negating intervention by the USA.

Update: A thoughtful opinion piece here by Neil Macdonald on the CBC website highlighting that there is enough hypocrisy and hyperbole on both sides of this issue already. If we were to use the same arguments on other countries as we are doing here, many countries would face international sanctions, letting alone some recent spurious historical assertions that Putin is Hitler and this is a replay of Czechoslovakia. Hint: it’s not. I always wonder if this is sheer ignorance and laziness on behalf of the media or something more sinister. Probably the former, the latter would entail some intelligence that seems to be in rather short supply of late.

Another update: Crimean MPs will vote on whether or not to join Russia on Thursday. The West really bungled this entire situation. It is quite clear to me that the people who are engaged in this affair are clearly out of their depth. In the lead up to 1914 the Foreign Offices of many European countries were staffed by connected people whose only expertise was their ability to choose their parents, it appears that those in political positions today are chosen due to their ability to raise capital for politicians or as rewards for political service. These are not the “experts” who should be in charge and many more will suffer due to arrogance, myopia, and ineptitude.